Bawler / South Africa vs Canada / Recap
FT · World: World Cup · Sunday, 28 June 2026

South Africa 0–1 CanadaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 28 June 2026

South Africa
0–1
Canada win
Canada
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had South Africa at 26%, draw at 33%, Canada at 41%. The match ended 0-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Canada.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Africa win
26%
Draw
33%
Canada win
41%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.08 – 1.39
Total 2.47
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.5 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 1.5 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✗ Lost
Value
X2
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.58x
  • X2✓
  • Under 10.5 Corners✓
  • Over 1.5 Goals✗
  • Over 7.5 SOT✓
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 74% because Canada's xG advantage (1.40 to 1.08) and Davies-David creative duo will consistently test South Africa's Tau and Zwane in a free-flowing encounter."

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