> MATCH.PREDICT()ยทWorld: World CupยทSunday 28 Jun, 19:00 UTC
South Africa vs Canada
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain โ every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals sits at 74% because Canada's xG advantage (1.40 to 1.08) and Davies-David creative duo will consistently test South Africa's Tau and Zwane in a free-flowing encounter.
Win probability
26.3% home33.0% draw40.7% away
xG chain โ base โ adjustments โ final ฮป
South AfricastepCanada
1.08Base xG ยท rolling 26-match1.39
no injury adjustment โ full squads available per FotMob
1.08Final ฮป โ what the Poisson uses1.39
Scoreline distribution ยท P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
X2 + Under 10.5 Corners + Over 1.5 Goals + Over 7.5 SOT
Model 27.9% ยท @ 3.58x
Take this pick โ> STAR_PICKS ยท player props
2 picksProbabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
โก Full-time recap available
South Africa 0โ1 Canada
See how the model called it ยท pick-by-pick verdict ยท xG vs actual โ
Statistical analysis for entertainment ยท Not betting advice ยท Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes ยท 18+