Bawler's model rates this match: Seattle Sounders FC are favoured (57% win probability vs 21% for Red Bull New York, 22% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Seattle Sounders FC 1-1 Red Bull New York (9.9% probability). Expected total goals: 3.28.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Seattle Sounders FC 57%, the draw 22% and Red Bull New York 21%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: Yes (61% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.08 and away expected goals 1.21.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.28. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).