San Jose Earthquakes vs Orlando City SC
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Over 1.5 Goals carries 85% probability because San Jose's 2.43 xG towers 1.21 above Orlando's 1.22, forcing a high-volume attacking script.
San Jose EarthquakesstepOrlando City SCSan Jose Earthquakes average 7.0 corners per game at home this season (20 competitive matches). Orlando City average 4.5 corners per game away from home this season (25 competitive matches).
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
More predictions for these teams
San Jose Earthquakes vs Orlando City — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between San Jose Earthquakes and Orlando City — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: San Jose Earthquakes 62% · draw 22% · Orlando City 16%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
San Jose Earthquakes 0–4 Orlando City SCModel estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.