What we expect
In plain English
San Diego FC are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Houston Dynamo FC, and Houston Dynamo FC have won two of the last three between them. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
San Diego FC or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win San Diego FC vs Houston Dynamo FC?
Bawler's model rates this match: San Diego FC are favoured (47% win probability vs 27% for Houston Dynamo FC, 26% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for San Diego FC vs Houston Dynamo FC?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is San Diego FC 1-1 Houston Dynamo FC (12.1% probability). Expected total goals: 2.86.
How does Bawler predict San Diego FC vs Houston Dynamo FC?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives San Diego FC 47%, the draw 26% and Houston Dynamo FC 27%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in San Diego FC vs Houston Dynamo FC?
BTTS: Yes (57% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.65 and away expected goals 1.20.
Over or under 2.5 goals in San Diego FC vs Houston Dynamo FC?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.86. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).