FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Minnesota United FC 2–2 Houston Dynamo FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Minnesota United FC or draw at 72%. Bawler had Minnesota United FC at 46%, the draw at 26% and Houston Dynamo FC at 28%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Minnesota United FC win
46%
Draw
26%
Result
Houston Dynamo FC win
28%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 1.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.