Rio Ave vs Sporting CP prediction — Liga Portugal · Fri 28 Aug · 20:15 UK

Liga Portugal · Fri 28 Aug · 20:15 UK
Rio Ave 12Draw 20Sporting CP 68
The call
68%
Sporting CP to win
3.0
Goals expected
Full time
Final 0–4

How it finished

Sporting CP beat Rio Ave 4–0. Bawler's model had Sporting CP in front at 68% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.0 goals; the match produced 4. Rio Ave had 6 shots (0 on target) to Sporting CP's 15 (7), with 39% of the ball against 61%. Expected goals finished 0.5 to 1.9.

Rio AveFull-time statsSporting CP
39%Possession61%
0.5Expected goals (xG)1.9
6Shots15
0Shots on target7
3Shots inside box11
0Big chances3
2Corners3
3Saves0
7Fouls14
1Offsides0
1Yellow cards1
What we publishedBeforeAfter
ResultSporting CP 68%Sporting CP (68% called)
Total goals3.04
Both teams to score49%No
Model callAway Win 68%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

MarketProbability
Sporting CP to score88%
Over 1.5 goals80%
Under 3.5 goals65%

First half — what we expected

Rio AveBefore half-timeSporting CP
38%Chance to score55%
4.1Expected shots7.5
1.3Expected shots on target2.7
1.7Expected corners3.2
25%Chance of 6+ shots73%
8%Chance of 8+ shots47%
38%Chance of 2+ shots on target65%
4%Chance of 4+ shots on target28%
49%Chance of 2+ corners80%
11%Chance of 4+ corners39%

Chance of at least one first-half goal: 72%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)-1.3 / match
Head-to-head, last 5RIO 0 · D 0 · SPO 5
Opponent strength indexTop quartile

Head to head

May 2026Rio Ave 1–4 Sporting CP
Dec 2025Sporting CP 4–0 Rio Ave
Apr 2025Rio Ave 1–2 Sporting CP
Apr 2025Sporting CP 2–0 Rio Ave
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Rio Ave vs Sporting CP?

Sporting CP beat Rio Ave 4–0. Bawler's model had Sporting CP in front at 68% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.0 goals; the match produced 4. Rio Ave had 6 shots (0 on target) to Sporting CP's 15 (7), with 39% of the ball against 61%. Expected goals finished 0.5 to 1.9.

What was the final score in Rio Ave vs Sporting CP?

Rio Ave 0–4 Sporting CP, played on 28 Aug 2026 in the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal. Bawler's model had gone into it with Rio Ave 12%, the draw 20% and Sporting CP 68%.

What were the stats in Rio Ave vs Sporting CP?

Full-time: Possession 39%–61%, Expected goals (xG) 0.5–1.9, Shots 6–15, Shots on target 0–7, Shots inside box 3–11, Big chances 0–3, Corners 2–3, Saves 3–0, Fouls 7–14, Offsides 1–0, Yellow cards 1–1.

Did both teams score in Rio Ave vs Sporting CP?

No. It finished 0–4, so Rio Ave failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 49% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Rio Ave vs Sporting CP right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said Sporting CP 68%, it finished Sporting CP (68% called); Total goals — we said 3.0, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 49%, it finished No; Model call — we said Away Win 68%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

Liga Portugal table →
All fixtures & results →Rio Ave form →Sporting CP form →