FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Sporting CP 3–1 AlvercaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Sporting CP at 71%, draw at 19%, Alverca at 10%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Sporting CP.
> Pre-match probability vs result
CP win
71%
Actual ✓
Draw
19%
Alverca win
10%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.19 – 0.72
Total 2.91
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 90%
✓ Won
Outside shot
X2
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost