FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Sporting CP 3–1 AlvercaMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Sporting CP to win at 71%. Bawler had Sporting CP at 71%, the draw at 19% and Alverca at 10%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sporting CP win
71%
Result
Draw
19%
Alverca win
10%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 0.7
Total 2.9
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 0.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Sporting CP or draw
Pre-match: 90%
Landed
Outside shot
Alverca or draw
Pre-match: 29%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.