FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 13 September 2026
FC Famalicao 1–1 Sporting CPMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had FC Famalicao at 24%, draw at 27%, Sporting CP at 49%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Sporting CP to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Famalicao win
24%
Draw
27%
Actual ✓
CP win
49%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.03 – 1.56
Total 2.59
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.6 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.6 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
X2
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Sporting CP's 0.53 expected-goals advantage and 49% win probability make X2 (draw or away win) the high-confidence forecast at 76%, with Viktor Gyökeres's striker role central to their attacking threat despite Famalicão's home turf."