FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Friday, 28 August 2026
Rio Ave 0–4 Sporting CPMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 28 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Sporting CP to win at 68%. Bawler had Rio Ave at 12%, the draw at 20% and Sporting CP at 68%. The match finished 0–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Rio Ave win
12%
Draw
20%
Sporting CP win
68%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
0.8 – 2.2
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 4
Total 4 (+1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Sporting CP to win
Pre-match: 68%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 35%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.