FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 31 October 2026
Millwall 4–1 Derby CountyMatch recap · Saturday, 31 October 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Millwall win
53%
Result
Draw
25%
Derby County win
23%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.1
Total 2.9
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
4.1 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.