FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 26 July 2026
Portland Timbers 2–1 Real Salt LakeMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 July 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Portland Timbers at 35%, draw at 29%, Real Salt Lake at 36%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-1. The model's headline call was Real Salt Lake to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Timbers win
35%
Actual ✓
Draw
29%
Lake win
36%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.57 – 1.59
Total 3.16
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 82% probability because both sides generate nearly identical attacking threat at 1.57 and 1.59 xG respectively, virtually guaranteeing a multi-goal affair."