What we expect
In plain English
Philadelphia Union are the model's pick, without being a certainty. They have won five of their last six, the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Real Salt Lake, and Real Salt Lake have won four of the last five between them. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
Philadelphia Union to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake?
Bawler's model rates this match: Philadelphia Union are favoured (60% win probability vs 19% for Real Salt Lake, 21% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Philadelphia Union 2-1 Real Salt Lake (9.7% probability). Expected total goals: 3.35.
How does Bawler predict Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Philadelphia Union 60%, the draw 21% and Real Salt Lake 19%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake?
BTTS: Yes (61% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.20 and away expected goals 1.16.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.35. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).