FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Real Salt Lake 0–3 Vancouver WhitecapsMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Real Salt Lake at 22%, draw at 23%, Vancouver Whitecaps at 54%. The match ended 0-3 — confirming the model's lean toward Vancouver Whitecaps.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Lake win
22%
Draw
23%
Whitecaps win
54%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.19 – 1.94
Total 3.13
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (-0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Away Win
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 38%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 83%, driven by Vancouver's 1.95 xG advantage and a 0.74 xG gap that favors a multi-goal affair despite Real Salt Lake's home field."