FT · USA: MLS · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Philadelphia Union 2–2 Charlotte FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Philadelphia Union or draw at 80%. Bawler had Philadelphia Union at 59%, the draw at 21% and Charlotte FC at 20%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Philadelphia Union win
59%
Draw
21%
Result
Charlotte FC win
20%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 1.2
Total 3.4
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.6 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.6 of our 3.4.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 86%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 21%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.