Bawler / Paraguay vs Australia / Recap
FT · World: World Cup · Friday, 26 June 2026

Paraguay 0–0 AustraliaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 26 June 2026

Paraguay
0–0
Draw
Australia
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Paraguay at 23%, draw at 32%, Australia at 45%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Australia to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Paraguay win
23%
Draw
32%
Actual ✓
Australia win
45%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.01 – 1.49
Total 2.50
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.5 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 2.5 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 4.35x
  • Over 1.5 Goals✗
  • Under 10.5 Corners✓
  • X2✓
  • Over 7.5 SOT✗
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 74% probability because Australia's 1.49 xG and Paraguay's creator Almirón's 20% of team output suggest enough attacking thrust to breach the 1.5 threshold despite Paraguay's 23% win odds."

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