Paraguay vs Australia
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Over 1.5 Goals sits at 74% probability because Australia's 1.49 xG and Paraguay's creator Almirón's 20% of team output suggest enough attacking thrust to breach the 1.5 threshold despite Paraguay's 23% win odds.
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
More predictions for these teams
Paraguay vs Australia — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Paraguay and Australia — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Paraguay 23% · draw 32% · Australia 45%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.