Match prediction·USA: MLS·Saturday 25 Jul, 23:30 UTC

Orlando City SC vs Nashville SC

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Over 1.5 Goals at 81% probability is the play—both sides project 3.03 combined xG with Nashville creator Hany Mukhtar driving 26% of his team's chances.

📊 Win probability
31.9% home29.6% draw38.5% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Orlando City SCstepNashville SC
1.27Base xG · rolling 26-match1.69
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.44Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.59

Orlando City average 4.6 corners per game at home this season (21 competitive matches). Nashville average 4.8 corners per game away from home this season (25 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
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0
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8
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1
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11
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home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
81%
Over 3.5 goals
25%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Orlando City vs Nashville — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 21 March 2026, Orlando City have won 0, Nashville have won 1, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
21 March 2026Nashville 50 Orlando CityUSA: MLS

The model's verdict for this fixture: Orlando City 32% · draw 30% · Nashville 39%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Orlando City SC 10 Nashville SC
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.