New York City FC vs Toronto FC
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Over 1.5 Goals at 69% probability is the lock here—New York City's 0.41 xG advantage and Martínez leading their attack sets up a low-scoring but inevitable breakthrough.
New York City average 5.6 corners per game at home this season (25 competitive matches). Toronto average 4.2 corners per game away from home this season (22 competitive matches).
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
More predictions for these teams
New York City vs Toronto — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between New York City and Toronto — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: New York City 43% · draw 31% · Toronto 25%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.