FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 26 July 2026
New England Revolution 4–1 Atlanta United FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 July 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had New England Revolution at 44%, draw at 30%, Atlanta United FC at 25%. The match ended 4-1 — confirming the model's lean toward New England Revolution.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Revolution win
44%
Actual ✓
Draw
30%
FC win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.63 – 1.19
Total 2.82
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+2.2 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.2 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 22%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals at 75% is the play here—New England's 1.63 xG advantage and 0.44 xG gap reveal a home side generating significantly more chances than Atlanta's creator Thiago Almada can neutralize."