New England Revolution vs Atlanta United FC
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Over 1.5 Goals at 75% is the play here—New England's 1.63 xG advantage and 0.44 xG gap reveal a home side generating significantly more chances than Atlanta's creator Thiago Almada can neutralize.
New England RevolutionstepAtlanta United FCNew England Revolution average 5.6 corners per game at home this season (25 competitive matches). Atlanta Utd average 3.7 corners per game away from home this season (23 competitive matches).
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
New England Revolution vs Atlanta Utd — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between New England Revolution and Atlanta Utd — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: New England Revolution 44% · draw 30% · Atlanta Utd 25%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
New England Revolution 4–1 Atlanta United FCModel estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.