FT · EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification · Wednesday, 19 August 2026

NEC Nijmegen 1–3 Bodo/GlimtMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 19 August 2026

NEC Nijmegen
1–3
Bodo/Glimt win
Bodo/Glimt

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was NEC Nijmegen or draw at 74%. Bawler had NEC Nijmegen at 52%, the draw at 22% and Bodo/Glimt at 26%. The match finished 1–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

NEC Nijmegen win
52%
Draw
22%
Bodo/Glimt win
26%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.1 – 1.5
Total 3.6
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 1.6
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 3.6.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 87%
Landed
Medium confidence
NEC Nijmegen to win
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 31%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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