FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 23 July 2026
Nashville SC 1–0 CF MontréalMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 23 July 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Nashville SC at 44%, draw at 31%, CF Montréal at 25%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Nashville SC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SC win
44%
Actual ✓
Draw
31%
Montréal win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.56 – 1.13
Total 2.70
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 73%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 20%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 73% because Nashville's 1.56 xG and Montréal's 1.13 xG create a combined attacking threat that consistently breaches the low-scoring threshold."