FT · USA: MLS · Saturday, 18 July 2026
Nashville SC 1–0 Atlanta United FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 18 July 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Nashville SC at 51%, draw at 29%, Atlanta United FC at 20%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Nashville SC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SC win
51%
Actual ✓
Draw
29%
FC win
20%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.72 – 1.02
Total 2.74
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 22%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 74% because Nashville's 1.72 xG dwarfs Atlanta's 1.02—a 0.70-goal gap that creator Hany Mukhtar will look to exploit at home."