Match prediction·USA: MLS·Saturday 18 Jul, 00:10 UTC

Nashville SC vs Atlanta United FC

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Over 1.5 Goals sits at 74% because Nashville's 1.72 xG dwarfs Atlanta's 1.02—a 0.70-goal gap that creator Hany Mukhtar will look to exploit at home.

📊 Win probability
50.6% home29.4% draw20.0% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Nashville SCstepAtlanta United FC
1.52Base xG · rolling 26-match1.08
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.72Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.02

Nashville average 5.4 corners per game at home this season (25 competitive matches). Atlanta Utd average 3.7 corners per game away from home this season (23 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
7
3
1
1
11
11
6
2
2
10
10
5
2
3
5
6
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
74%
Over 3.5 goals
22%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Nashville vs Atlanta Utd — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 18 April 2026, Nashville have won 1, Atlanta Utd have won 0, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
18 April 2026Atlanta Utd 02 NashvilleUSA: MLS

The model's verdict for this fixture: Nashville 51% · draw 29% · Atlanta Utd 20%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Nashville SC 10 Atlanta United FC
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.