What we expect
In plain English
Gil Vicente are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have won three of the last five between them. The model sees around two goals in it.
What would change the call
Gil Vicente or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Moreirense vs Gil Vicente?
Bawler's model rates this match: Gil Vicente are favoured (46% win probability vs 26% for Moreirense, 28% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Moreirense vs Gil Vicente?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Moreirense 1-1 Gil Vicente (13.3% probability). Expected total goals: 2.46.
How does Bawler predict Moreirense vs Gil Vicente?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Moreirense 26%, the draw 28% and Gil Vicente 46%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Moreirense vs Gil Vicente?
BTTS: No (51% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 1.01 and away expected goals 1.45.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Moreirense vs Gil Vicente?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.46. The lean is Under 2.5 (likely a tighter affair).