FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Monday, 19 October 2026
Braga 1–2 Gil VicenteMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 19 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Braga or draw at 77%. Bawler had Braga at 50%, the draw at 27% and Gil Vicente at 23%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Braga win
50%
Draw
27%
Gil Vicente win
23%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.0
Total 2.5
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 2.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Braga or draw
Pre-match: 77%
Missed
Medium confidence
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Braga's 0.59 xG advantage and 50% win probability make Braga or draw the model's high-confidence forecast, as the hosts' superior chance creation should prevent a Gil Vicente upset."