FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Friday, 09 October 2026
Moreirense 0–1 Gil VicenteMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 09 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Gil Vicente or draw at 74%. Bawler had Moreirense at 26%, the draw at 28% and Gil Vicente at 46%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Moreirense win
26%
Draw
28%
Gil Vicente win
46%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.0 – 1.4
Total 2.5
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced 1.5 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Gil Vicente or draw
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.