FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Gil Vicente 0–1 FC PortoMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Porto or draw at 78%. Bawler had Gil Vicente at 22%, the draw at 27% and FC Porto at 51%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Gil Vicente win
22%
Draw
27%
FC Porto win
51%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.0 – 1.6
Total 2.5
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.4 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 1.5 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
FC Porto or draw
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Porto's 0.64 xG advantage and 51% win probability make FC Porto or draw the model's high-confidence call, as Gil Vicente's 0.95 expected output leaves little margin for an upset at home."