FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Swansea City 0–1 West Ham UnitedMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was West Ham United or draw at 77%. Bawler had Swansea City at 23%, the draw at 24% and West Ham United at 53%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Swansea City win
23%
Draw
24%
West Ham United win
53%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.9
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 2.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Missed
Medium confidence
West Ham United to win
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.