FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Portsmouth 2–1 MillwallMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Millwall or draw at 64%. Bawler had Portsmouth at 36%, the draw at 27% and Millwall at 37%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Portsmouth win
36%
Result
Draw
27%
Millwall win
37%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.4
Total 2.7
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.7.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals emerges as the high-confidence forecast at 75%, anchored by Portsmouth and Millwall's near-identical expected goals output (1.34 vs 1.35) pointing to an open, attacking contest."