FT · England: Championship · Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Millwall 0–1 Swansea CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Millwall or draw at 73%. Bawler had Millwall at 47%, the draw at 26% and Swansea City at 27%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Millwall win
47%
Draw
26%
Swansea City win
27%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Millwall or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 31%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.