FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Millwall 2–2 West Ham UnitedMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Millwall at 27%, draw at 24%, West Ham United at 48%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was West Ham United to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Millwall win
27%
Draw
24%
Actual ✓
United win
48%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.31 – 1.80
Total 3.12
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.9 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
X2
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 38%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals looks a strong forecast at 78% probability, built on West Ham's 0.49 xG advantage and Castellanos leading their attack with 26% of team expected output."