How it finished
Bayer Leverkusen beat Mainz 4–3. Mainz had 23 shots (5 on target) to Bayer Leverkusen's 16 (7), with 47% of the ball against 53%. On expected goals it was 2.9 to 1.7, so Mainz created the better chances and still lost the game.
What we expected from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
What we said the chances were
First half — what we expected
First half — what we expected
How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.
League position
Head to head
Around this fixture
Bundesliga table →Common questions
Who won Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen beat Mainz 4–3. Mainz had 23 shots (5 on target) to Bayer Leverkusen's 16 (7), with 47% of the ball against 53%. On expected goals it was 2.9 to 1.7, so Mainz created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Mainz 3–4 Bayer Leverkusen, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the Germany: Bundesliga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Mainz 38%, the draw 24% and Bayer Leverkusen 37%.
What were the stats in Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Full-time: Possession 47%–53%, Expected goals (xG) 2.9–1.7, Shots 23–16, Shots on target 5–7, Shots inside box 17–12, Big chances 2–4, Corners 4–3, Saves 3–1, Fouls 11–10, Offsides 0–1, Yellow cards 3–1.
Did both teams score in Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — both Mainz and Bayer Leverkusen scored, finishing 3–4. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 65% before kickoff.