What we expect
In plain English
Mainz are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have won four of their last six, and Bayer Leverkusen have won three of the last five between them. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
Mainz or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Bawler's model rates this match: Mainz are favoured (38% win probability vs 37% for Bayer Leverkusen, 24% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Mainz 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen (10.7% probability). Expected total goals: 3.28.
How does Bawler predict Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Mainz 38%, the draw 24% and Bayer Leverkusen 37%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen?
BTTS: Yes (65% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.66 and away expected goals 1.63.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.28. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).