FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Lech Poznan 0–4 Bayer LeverkusenMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Lech Poznan or draw at 67%. Bawler had Lech Poznan at 43%, the draw at 24% and Bayer Leverkusen at 33%. The match finished 0–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lech Poznan win
43%
Draw
24%
Bayer Leverkusen win
33%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.5
Total 3.3
Actual
0 – 4
Total 4 (+0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 5.3
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Lech Poznan or draw
Pre-match: 67%
Missed
Outside shot
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 35%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.