FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Mainz 2–3 Werder BremenMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Mainz or draw at 80%. Bawler had Mainz at 58%, the draw at 22% and Werder Bremen at 20%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Mainz win
58%
Draw
22%
Werder Bremen win
20%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 1.2
Total 3.2
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 2.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Mainz's 0.94 expected-goal advantage sets up Over 1.5 Goals as the model's high-confidence call at 83%, with the hosts generating 2.10 xG to Bremen's 1.15 in a fixture built for multiple scores."