FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Mainz 1–3 Eintracht FrankfurtMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Mainz at 53%, draw at 24%, Eintracht Frankfurt at 23%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-3. The model's headline call was Mainz to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Mainz win
53%
Draw
24%
Frankfurt win
23%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.92 – 1.21
Total 3.13
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+0.9 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 77%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 38%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Mainz's 0.71 expected-goals edge and 53% win probability sets up a 1X forecast at 77%, with Frankfurt's striker Omar Marmoush (28% of team xG) unable to close the creation gap."