FT · Europe: Europa League · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 NK CeljeMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Bayer Leverkusen at 65%, draw at 20%, NK Celje at 15%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Bayer Leverkusen.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Leverkusen win
65%
Actual ✓
Draw
20%
Celje win
15%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.20 – 0.97
Total 3.17
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-1.2 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 65%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 39%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Bayer Leverkusen's home win is the high-confidence forecast at 65%, powered by a dominant 1.24 expected-goals advantage and Wirtz orchestrating 25% of their attacking output."