FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 SC FreiburgMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Bayer Leverkusen or draw at 78%. Bawler had Bayer Leverkusen at 55%, the draw at 23% and SC Freiburg at 22%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Bayer Leverkusen win
55%
Result
Draw
23%
SC Freiburg win
22%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.2
Total 3.3
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 3.3.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.