FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Mainz 3–4 Bayer LeverkusenMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Mainz or draw at 63%. Bawler had Mainz at 38%, the draw at 24% and Bayer Leverkusen at 37%. The match finished 3–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Mainz win
38%
Draw
24%
Bayer Leverkusen win
37%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.6
Total 3.3
Actual
3 – 4
Total 7 (+3.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.9 – 1.7
From the match itself
The match produced 3.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.