Lyon vs AJ Auxerre prediction — Ligue 1 · Fri 4 Sept · 18:00 UK

Ligue 1 · Fri 4 Sept · 18:00 UK
Lyon 64Draw 22AJ Auxerre 14
The call
64%
Lyon to win
2.8
Goals expected
14d 09hUntil lineups lock

Every market the model rates

Lyon or draw86%
Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals54%
BTTS49%
Lyon win to nil38%
AJ Auxerre or draw36%
Under 3.5 goals68%
Correct score 2–012%

Model inputs

Home form (last 6)W L L L W D
Expected goals gap (xG)+1.2 / match
Head-to-head, last 5LYO 2 · D 2 · AJA 1

Head to head

Apr 2026Lyon 3–2 Auxerre
Nov 2025Auxerre 0–0 Lyon
Apr 2025Auxerre 1–3 Lyon
Oct 2024Lyon 2–2 Auxerre
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Common questions

Who will win Lyon vs AJ Auxerre?

Bawler's model rates this match: Lyon are favoured (64% win probability vs 14% for AJ Auxerre, 22% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Lyon vs AJ Auxerre?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Lyon 2-0 AJ Auxerre (11.6% probability). Expected total goals: 2.84.

How does Bawler predict Lyon vs AJ Auxerre?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Lyon 64%, the draw 22% and AJ Auxerre 14%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Lyon vs AJ Auxerre?

BTTS: No (51% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 2.01 and away expected goals 0.84.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Lyon vs AJ Auxerre?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.84. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

Ligue 1 table →
All fixtures & results →Lyon form →AJ Auxerre form →