Bawler's model rates this match: Lyon are favoured (64% win probability vs 14% for AJ Auxerre, 22% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Lyon 2-0 AJ Auxerre (11.6% probability). Expected total goals: 2.84.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Lyon 64%, the draw 22% and AJ Auxerre 14%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: No (51% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 2.01 and away expected goals 0.84.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.84. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).