FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 12 September 2026
AJ Auxerre 1–0 NiceMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had AJ Auxerre at 44%, draw at 27%, Nice at 29%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward AJ Auxerre.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Auxerre win
44%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
Nice win
29%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.52 – 1.19
Total 2.71
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 71%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Auxerre's 0.33 xG advantage and 44% win probability make 1X (draw or home win at 71%) the model's high-confidence call against a Nice side generating just 1.19 expected goals."