FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Lens 5–2 AJ AuxerreMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Lens to win at 64%. Bawler had Lens at 64%, the draw at 22% and AJ Auxerre at 15%. The match finished 5–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lens win
64%
Result
Draw
22%
AJ Auxerre win
15%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 0.9
Total 2.9
Actual
5 – 2
Total 7 (+4.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
4.5 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced 4.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Lens or draw
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.