FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Lens 5–2 AJ AuxerreMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Lens at 64%, draw at 22%, AJ Auxerre at 15%. The match ended 5-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Lens.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Lens win
64%
Actual ✓
Draw
22%
Auxerre win
15%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.03 – 0.87
Total 2.90
Actual
5 – 2
Total 7 (+4.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 4.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 85%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
✗ Lost