FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 20 September 2026
AJ Auxerre 2–1 BrestMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had AJ Auxerre at 37%, draw at 27%, Brest at 37%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward AJ Auxerre.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Auxerre win
37%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
Brest win
37%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.43 – 1.42
Total 2.85
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's 74% call here, built on combined xG of 2.65 despite Auxerre's narrow 40% win probability versus Brest's 33%."