How it finished
Lorient and Toulouse drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Lorient at 42% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 27%. It forecast 2.7 goals; the match produced 4. Lorient had 10 shots (3 on target) to Toulouse's 13 (4), with 41% of the ball against 59%. Expected goals finished 0.8 to 1.3.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 74%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Lorient vs Toulouse?
Lorient and Toulouse drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Lorient at 42% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 27%. It forecast 2.7 goals; the match produced 4. Lorient had 10 shots (3 on target) to Toulouse's 13 (4), with 41% of the ball against 59%. Expected goals finished 0.8 to 1.3.
What was the final score in Lorient vs Toulouse?
Lorient 2–2 Toulouse, played on 12 Sept 2026 in the France: Ligue 1. Bawler's model had gone into it with Lorient 42%, the draw 27% and Toulouse 30%.
What were the stats in Lorient vs Toulouse?
Full-time: Possession 41%–59%, Expected goals (xG) 0.8–1.3, Shots 10–13, Shots on target 3–4, Shots inside box 6–13, Big chances 0–1, Corners 4–3, Saves 2–1, Fouls 8–18, Offsides 2–1, Yellow cards 1–0.
Did both teams score in Lorient vs Toulouse?
Yes — both Lorient and Toulouse scored, finishing 2–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 54% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Lorient vs Toulouse right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Lorient or draw 70%, it finished Draw (27% called); Total goals — we said 2.7, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 54%, it finished Yes.