FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Nice 0–0 LorientMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Nice at 36%, draw at 27%, Lorient at 37%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Lorient to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Nice win
36%
Draw
27%
Actual ✓
Lorient win
37%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.36 – 1.38
Total 2.75
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won