Who will win Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest?

Bawler's model rates this match: Liverpool are favoured (59% win probability vs 16% for Nottingham Forest, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Liverpool 2-1 Nottingham Forest (9.9% probability). Expected total goals: 3.09.

How does Bawler predict Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Liverpool 59%, the draw 25% and Nottingham Forest 16%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest?

BTTS: Yes (56% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.07 and away expected goals 1.02.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.09. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

England: Premier LeagueSaturday 29 Aug, 11:30 UTC

Liverpool vNottingham Forest

Most likely scoreline

2–1

10% of the time · 3.09 goals expected

Liverpool 59%Draw 25%Nottingham Forest 16%

How we get there

LiverpoolstepNottingham Forest

2.07Base xG · rolling 26-match1.02

no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob

2.07Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.02

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

Liverpool average 6.5 corners per game at home this season (27 competitive matches). Nott'm Forest average 4.6 corners per game away from home this season (27 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate

home windrawaway win

Team news — absences and latest club updates· as of 16 Aug 2026

LiverpoolHome

Unavailable / doubtful

Hugo Ekitike — Ruptured Achilles tendon (April 2026)
Expected return: Months away — Iraola: 'still way off'. No date given
Conor Bradley — Significant knee injury, surgery (January 2026)
Expected return: Months away — Iraola: 'still way off'. No date given
Giovanni Leoni — ACL tear (sustained early in 2025/26)
Expected return: Closest of the long-term absentees to returning; no date given
Joe Gomez — Muscle injury, limped off in pre-season friendly v Sunderland (25 July 2026). Iraola called it the 'worst news' of the game
Stefan Bajcetic — Returning from injury
Expected return: Expected to train partially with the group during the US pre-season tour

+1 more absence reported

Latest updates

16 Aug · Signing
Ronald Araujo completes season-long loan from Barcelona, takes No. 33
Liverpool completed a season-long loan for the 27-year-old Uruguay centre-back and former Barcelona captain, with an option to buy next summer.
16 Aug · Departure
Calum Scanlon signs new long-term deal and rejoins Cardiff City on loan
Liverpool confirmed the 21-year-old left-back signed a new long-term contract before returning to Cardiff on loan for the 2026-27 season.

Nott'm ForestAway

Unavailable / doubtful

Murillo — Hamstring
Expected return: Early August 2026 (FotMob). Glasner said in July he is back doing rehab sessions with intensity being…
Callum Hudson-Odoi — Muscle/thigh - the injury required surgery and ended his 2025/26 season early
Expected return: Early August 2026 (FotMob)
Nicolo Savona — Knee
Expected return: Early August 2026 (FotMob)
Ola Aina — Knock - listed as doubtful by FotMob
Expected return: Unclear - he started the 18 July friendly as a wing-back, so this flag may be stale or may post-date that game

Latest updates

16 Aug · Departure
Forest agree Awoniyi sale to Coventry, striker undergoing medical
Nottingham Forest and Coventry City reached a club-to-club agreement on 15 August for a permanent transfer of Taiwo Awoniyi, with the medical reported as ongoing.
13 Aug · Signing
Forest sign Ivory Coast centre-back Ousmane Diomande from Sporting for £34m
Forest confirmed the signing of 22-year-old Ousmane Diomande from Sporting CP on 11 August for a reported £34m, on a four-year deal with the option of a further year.

Club news is gathered once a day from club statements and reporting, last on 16 Aug 2026. It is not a confirmed team sheet — squads are named about an hour before kick-off, after this page was built, so late fitness news may not appear above.

Predicted lineups — expected XI, not a confirmed team sheet

LiverpoolHome4-2-3-1
Goalkeeper
GKAlisson Becker
Defence
RBJeremie Frimpong (Bradley and Gomez both injured)CBJeremy JacquetCBVirgil van DijkLBMilos Kerkez
Midfield
CMRyan GravenberchCMAlexis Mac AllisterAMFlorian Wirtz
Attack
RWunresolved — Victor Munoz / Federico Chiesa / Rio Ngumoha / Dominik Szoboszlai wideLWCody GakpoSTAlexander Isak
Selection doubts
·Right wing is genuinely open for the first time since 2017 with Salah gone — Munoz, Chiesa, Ngumoha and a wide Szoboszlai are all candidates; Liverpool were still reported to want another attacker
·Right-back: Frimpong by default with Bradley (knee) and Gomez (muscle) out

Nott'm ForestAway3-4-2-1
Goalkeeper
GKMatz Sels
Defence
CBJair CunhaCBNikola MilenkovicCBMoratoWBNeco WilliamsWBOla Aina
Midfield
CMRyan YatesCMJames McAteeAMOmari HutchinsonAMMorgan Gibbs-White
Attack
STIgor Jesus
Selection doubts
·This XI is Glasner's actual first Forest team sheet (v Notts County, 18 July 2026): Sels behind a back three of Jair Cunha, Milenkovic and Morato, with Aina and Neco Williams as the wing-backs, Yat…
·Back three, right side: Ousmane Diomande (deal agreed 30 July, EUR 40m) is reported as arriving specifically to play right centre-back in the three, which would displace Jair Cunha or Zach Abbott.

Our projected starting elevens from squad news as of 30 July 2026 — not team sheets. Clubs confirm their starting elevens around an hour before kick-off, after this page was built.

Fantasy angle — top FPL picks in this fixture (2026/27 projections)

IsakLIV · FWD · £9.0m4.0 pts

WirtzLIV · MID · £7.5m3.9 pts

Gibbs-WhiteNFO · MID · £8.0m3.9 pts

All projected points →

More predictions for these teams

Liverpool fixtures & form →Nottingham Forest fixtures & form →

Liverpool vs Nott'm Forest — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Liverpool and Nott'm Forest — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Liverpool 59% · draw 25% · Nott'm Forest 16%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Liverpool predictions & form →Nott'm Forest predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →

More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.