FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Nottingham Forest 0–1 Leeds UnitedMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Nottingham Forest or draw at 70%. Bawler had Nottingham Forest at 43%, the draw at 27% and Leeds United at 30%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Nottingham Forest win
43%
Draw
27%
Leeds United win
30%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.3
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.