FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Nottingham Forest 0–1 Leeds UnitedMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Nottingham Forest at 43%, draw at 27%, Leeds United at 30%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Nottingham Forest to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Forest win
43%
Draw
27%
United win
30%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.53 – 1.25
Total 2.79
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost