FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Newcastle United 2–2 LiverpoolMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Newcastle United or draw at 63%. Bawler had Newcastle United at 38%, the draw at 25% and Liverpool at 37%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Newcastle United win
38%
Draw
25%
Result
Liverpool win
37%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.5
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 2.7
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.