FT · Europe: Champions League · Wednesday, 09 September 2026
Liverpool 2–1 Atlético MadridMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 09 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Liverpool at 67%, draw at 19%, Atlético Madrid at 14%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Liverpool.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Liverpool win
67%
Actual ✓
Draw
19%
Madrid win
14%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.39 – 1.04
Total 3.43
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.4 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 67%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Liverpool's home win is the model's 67% call, built on a decisive 1.35 xG advantage and Mohamed Salah commanding 19% of their attacking output against an Atlético side generating just 1.04 expected goals."